What's Happening in Energy highlights the most interesting findings from public utility commission filings.
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This week:
Let’s get into it.
What's Happening in Energy — Aug 7
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Load Transfer Event // Dominion // PJM
On July 22, PJM experienced its largest load loss event on record. 3,800 MW of load went offline when a 230 kV transmission line tripped within the Dominion zone. For grid reliability experts, the report from PJM contains some jaw-dropping charts.
First up, a comparison of the instantaneous demand in PJM versus the Area Control Error (ACE). ACE, which measures the imbalance between supply and demand, reached almost 4 GW!
System frequency spiked as well, peaking at 60.092 Hz.
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Pipeline of Interconnecting Load // Louisville Gas and Electric + Kentucky Utilities
Louisville Gas and Electric/Kentucky Utilities (LG&E/KU) shared a table with their current pipeline of interconnecting load. The table categorizes the loads by type and percentage probability of success. 11.6 out of 13.7 gigawatts of total large load are (surprise) data centers, but barely 1GW of that is ‘imminent’ — arriving soon.
Informational Report on Resource Adequacy // FERC Show Cause // CAISO
CAISO filed an informational report on resource adequacy in response to FERC’s Show Cause Order. It includes an up-and-to-the-right chart showing cumulative additions of new resources in CAISO since 2020, and the expected future trajectory of that growth. Follow the FERC docket here.
In CAISO’s words:
“...current forecasts and planning studies indicate that California's principal focus is not addressing an imminent statewide capacity deficit, but rather successfully executing the resource procurement, transmission expansion, and interconnection activities already identified through the state's coordinated planning processes to ensure sufficient resources are available to serve projected demand reliably.”
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Motions for Abeyance // RTOs // FERC Show Cause Order
6-for-6. That’s how many RTOs filed motions for abeyance in response to the FERC’s Show Cause Order. If their motions are granted by the Commission, the RTOs will have 90 days to respond with a Section 205 filing of tariff revisions that more justly and reasonably accommodate the interconnection of large loads. Check out the motions for each RTO linked below.
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Status Report on Key Issues // MISO
MISO filed a “Main Parent Entity” status report with an update on all the important market design initiatives at the ISO. Check it out here.
Important updates include:
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Crypto and the Public Interest // Glorious Star // Ohio Edison
Staff of the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio (PUCO) recommended the Commission reject crypto facility Glorious Star’s application for a “Reasonable Arrangement” with Ohio Edison. The arrangement would allow the 18 MW crypto facility in Youngstown to opt-out of Rider NMB, the utility’s mechanism for recovering transmission costs, and secure its own transmission service independently. The Commission rejected an application for the same arrangement in 2024. According to the Office of the Ohio Consumers’ Counsel, the opt-out would shift transmission costs to residential consumers. And, according to Staff:
“The Commission denied the 2024 Application because the Applicant “would create a significant incremental load increase to the grid and NMB Pilot of up to 18 MW” but without “sufficient substantial contribution to economic development or other public interest benefits.” Nothing about this conclusion has changed. The Applicant’s operations are substantially the same as described in the 2024 Application. Indeed, it appears that local employment associated with this project may have declined from the level in the 2024 Application. Staff generally expects a greater contribution to job creation when recommending approval of a reasonable arrangement.”
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Large Load Inquiries in Washington // Puget Sound Energy
Puget Sound Energy filed a table showing the proposed large loads greater than 20 MW that have expressed interest in locating in the utility’s service territory. It is a less fertile market than others. Only four projects, the largest being 177 megawatts, are in feasibility assessment. Of the 27 projects, 17 have withdrawn their inquiries, and no new filings have been requested in the past three financial quarters. The remaining 10 projects total 897 MW and are mostly proposed for King County, i.e. Seattle. And of that total, 590 MW are explicitly data centers.
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Solar Uncertainty and Batteries // ERCOT // Texas
ERCOT presented its proposed methodology for determining ancillary services (AS) quantities in 2027. The presentation included charts visualizing two of the main dynamics shifting AS procurement: rising solar forecast errors and increasing penetration of energy storage resources.
Since 2023, the Mean Absolute Error of solar forecasts has been increasing due to rising solar capacity and correlated errors. The increase has been the most significant in the Far East region, where “variable weather and cloud cover [make] forecasting more difficult, especially during ramping hours.”
ERCOT also included a chart of operational cumulative battery storage capacity and future additions broken out by the status of financial security postings. A decade ago, the state had all of 36 megawatts of operational grid-scale batteries. It has 26 gigawatts this year, and an expected 50 gigawatts by 2028.
And then there are the latest large load projections: 65GW this year, 201 GW next year, and 350 GW by 2028. The usual caveats about “no studies submitted” apply.
See ERCOT’s Monthly Operational Overview:
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Permian Basin Reliability Project // Exceptions to a Proposed Decision // Texas
Also in Texas, Oncor and LCRA Transmission Services filed limited exceptions expressing their support for “Route 228” – their favored route for the Big Hill Substation to Sand Lake Switch 765 kV line (and the one proposed by the Administrative Law Judge). The line, part of the broader backbone of 765 kV projects in the Permian Basin Reliability Plan, would traverse 197.8 miles through several counties in West Texas from Schleicher County to Ward County. However, Anadarko filed exceptions adamantly opposing this route because it would bisect Anadarko’s leaseholds in “Segment D1”. The oil and gas producer is concerned that the lines would force it to relocate its well pads, de-energize its electrical infrastructure, and thwart its planning:
"Further, Anadarko's operations can expand very quickly, and Anadarko can go from planning a well to having a drilling rig on site in the span of three to five weeks. This timeline does not match well with the long development and schedule for large transmission lines, and Anadarko's development activity has often expanded significantly between the time a utility surveys a particular area and when it actually files a CCN proceeding. Routing a transmission line through a major production area can cause further delays in the development process and can even prevent Anadarko from installing otherwise productive wells."
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Who is Responsible for Cost Increases? // CPCN 1200 MW CC Gas Plant + 70 MW of Solar // West Virginia
In hearing transcripts, Counsel for Monongahela Power Company and Potomac Edison responded to Commissioners of the Public Service Commission of West Virginia about how data center contracts handle costs incurred to construct transmission and generation for large loads. The wider proceeding concerns the utility’s application for a Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity (CPCN) to construct a 1200 MW combined cycle gas plant and a 70 MW solar facility.
“So for transmission, the asset that's being built for them is solely for them and only them. So they will be responsible for 100 percent of the cost, whatever that is. On the generation piece, they'll be responsible for their --- whatever their share of the facility is. And if they would walk away, of course they would have to pay basically that share through the end. But they wouldn't pay for the whole thing, because when you're done, you still have an asset available, that asset's usable. So I can sell that asset into the market and then, you know, the refund --- the rebates or the sales can come back to our customers and they can reap the benefit of that. So they wouldn't be covered a hundred percent because of that. There's a usable piece for the generation. And like I said, the transmission, it's really only built for one very specific customer.”
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Defining a Large Load “Forecast” // Public Service Company of Colorado (Xcel)
Michael Pascucci, Regional Vice President of Regulatory Planning and Policy at the Public Service Company of Colorado (Xcel), responded to requests from the Colorado PUC about discrepancies in large load forecasts over time with a distinction that says a lot about how important it is for stakeholders to precisely define what constitutes a “forecast".
"It is clear the “Large Load Forecast” has caused confusion and is inartful in name. The Company’s “Large Load Forecast” is better considered a “tracker” or a living document, which is updated regularly by the Company’s customer account teams. It is not a source of financial or planning forecasts and does not necessarily reflect the same level of certainty or confidence that its Load or Sales forecasts used for the purposes of financial or system planning are used. Unfortunately, the naming convention, and potentially presentation of these documents may have left the Commission and stakeholders with an inaccurate understanding of what the Company was attempting to present."
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New Dockets of the Week
In Virginia, Rappahannock Electric Cooperative (REC) filed an application with the State Corporation Commission to approve a new arrangement to provide retail electric service to large loads after recent state legislation impacted the prior arrangement. The application included a diagram showing the relationships between all the parties.
Previously, REC was planning to purchase electricity from its affiliates and sell to large load customers. In the new arrangement, REC would own affiliates that enter into Power Supply Agreements with large loads. The large loads would also pay REC for the costs of distribution. Altogether, REC intends the arrangement to isolate costs incurred by large loads and protect ratepayers.
Excerpt(s) of the Week
In Alabama, Energy Alabama submitted comments in the proceeding initiated last month to establish processes for the Public Service Commission to review contracts between Alabama Power and large loads. Energy Alabama addressed the fact that this proceeding is ongoing at the same time the utility is negotiating a special contract with Alabama ADC Holdings, a subsidiary of Nebius.
"Energy Alabama takes no position here on the merits of that contract. It is cited for what it demonstrates: every issue in this proceeding is live today—a 300MW load, twice Act 610's 150 MW threshold, stands ready for approval under rules this proceeding exists to replace—and the framework the Commission builds here will determine whether the public ever gets answers. The identity of a customer seeking power-plant-scale service should be knowable from the Commission's own files, not from cross-referencing local tax abatement records and television news."
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