Every week, Halcyon reviews all the dockets, filings, and exhibits it has processed in the past seven days (8,956 documents added from Oct 1-7). We select around 10-ish favorites, which may include lesser-known items, standout zingers, or simple things we believe deserve more visibility in the information shared among tens of thousands of stakeholders. This information flows through 50 state electricity regulators and reaches potentially millions of interested parties (including you, if you’re reading this). 

We bias for recency, for good reason. However, there are times we discover a gem we previously overlooked, or we have important content that, despite being set aside, deserves more attention in a weekly rundown. Here’s something that is a bit of both: Idaho Power’s firm load projection, filed as part of its 2025 Integrated Resource Plan in June. 

The chart presents a common pattern that regular readers may recognize: it shows years of stagnant or declining trading, followed by a (projected) significant upward leap. No points for guessing what technology is the main driver of this demand projection: it starts with ‘data’ and ends with ‘center.’ 

Take note of the scale in this context. Unlike Texas, which has tens of gigawatts of data center load in the queue and is expected to exceed a peak load of 100 gigawatts in the coming years, this situation is quite different. Even states like Michigan, where Consumers Energy has 21 gigawatts of data center interconnection requests, present a different scenario. Idaho has a relatively small population and a utility with a historically low firm power load that could potentially increase fivefold by the end of the decade.  

While data centers often get the headlines, there are other large loads in Idaho that reflect the state's unique characteristics. Below are the firm loads identified by Idaho Power:

• Brisbie LLC, a Meta Platforms $800 million data center on track for completion this year
• The Idaho National Laboratory, an 890 square mile nuclear energy R&D site
• Lamb Weston, a potato processing plant
• Micron’s $15 billion memory manufacturing facility in Boise
• Micron’s headquarters, also in Boise
• Simplot Caldwell, another potato processing plant
• Simplot Pocatello, a phosphates plant on the Idaho-Wyoming border

Uniquely Idaho, indeed. And more interconnected than outsiders realize. J. R. Simplot, known for his potato processing and phosphate plants, also bankrolled Micron Technology during its early years. 

The U.S. electricity system has outsized demand from data centers, but it also faces diverse demand from many new sources of growth and stressors. This diversity is why understanding the future of the US electricity system requires a thorough comprehension of the growth drivers and interconnection for every new large load, not just AI-driven data centers. It is essential to understanding the mechanisms at work within large load tariffs, especially as smaller electricity service territories adapt to new demand drivers that could completely change the shape of their system. 

This also leads to a better understanding of capital construction, energy storage, and substation development. That’s why our next three data subscriptions cover utility cost of capital, battery energy storage systems, and substation approvals. Read more about them here. 

The future of industrial and firm load demand growth in the US is often about data centers, but it isn’t just about data centers. Sometimes it’s nuclear research facilities. Or semiconductor manufacturing. Or phosphates plants. Or, potatoes. 

Join the product waitlist(s) or get more information about forthcoming Rate Case/Cost-of-Capital tracker, Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) tracker, and New Substation Development tracker, or, as always, drop us a line if you have any questions, thoughts, or other fun facts about potatoes: sayhi@halcyon.io

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